Week six
The game: Cowboys at Patriots
The beer: Jack’s Abby House Lager
The result: Loss, 35–29
The method: Live via Paramount+

Week seven
The game: Jets at Patriots
The beer: True North Festbier Lager
The result: 54–13
The method: Live via CBS

The headline: “Will the sun rise up tomorrow?” – Black Sabbath, “Children of the Grave”

The commentary: That depends, Ozzy, as “Children of the Grave” blasted the Gillette faithful in the closing seconds of Cowboys overtime. Will Belichick be the one to, if not outright rebuild, then at least restock an ageing and outdated roster? To foresee a post-Gilmore group of unskilled, “gritty” defensive backs and determine that he has put his team in the best position to compete against the likes of the Buccaneers and Cowboys? To mistrust his own evaluation and fail to reward meaningful snaps to recent draft picks when high-priced offensive free agents perform no better than undrafted stiffs? Will the sun rise up tomorrow? Will a series of tables populate a weekly blog no one reads?

[Note: I wrote most of this in the days leading up to the Jets game. An impressive blowout win over a league doormat, despite local idiots and their loud assurances that this underwater team is destined for the playoffs, changes nothing about Belichick’s abilities to rebuild a football team sans Brady. Understand, though, that I relied on Sam Darnold in my two remaining legal and legitimate knockout pools and put another spreadsheet out of its misery. I know nothing about football.]

Ten days ago I formally defined my conviction that Bill Belichick is obstructing this team’s—your team’s—chances to compete for championships in three, five and ten years. If the man cannot draft and refuses to relinquish draft responsibilities then change, indeed, is now. His replacement, whoever it is (I have no suggestions), of course will not automatically succeed. However, at the current trajectory of overvaluing versatile mediocrity and literally sidelining youthful potential, his own model assures that he won’t succeed either, outside of Mac Jones evolving to smother personnel shortcomings elsewhere. The former quarterback perfected that.

Evidence speaks for itself: here are the man’s first-, second- and third-round picks dating back to 2010, which is probably too long ago except that McCourty (shudder) and Gronkowski (shudder) are still in the league. It argues in Belichick’s favor anyway. I’ll paint the hits and misses with a broad brush but will avoid belated “He should have taken this guy instead!” reactions because it’s done to death—“DK Metcalf!!1”—and, you know, I once thought Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance were the same person. Corresponding criticism of other teams’ drafts is also withheld because they didn’t have an eighteen-year supply of TB12-branded band-aids in their back pockets.

Many thanks to Pro Football Reference for the Patriots-specific data that I rearranged and HTML’d the shit out of.

Twelve years of three rounds of Bill Belichick draft picks
Round | Overall | Player
2021 1 15 Mac Jones (QB)
2 38 Christian Barmore (DL)
3 96 Ronnie Perkins (DE)
2020 2 37 Kyle Dugger (S)
2 60 Josh Uche (LB)
3 87 Anfernee Jennings (LB)
3 91 Devin Asiasi (TE)
3 101 Dalton Keene (TE)
2019 1 32 N’Keal Harry (WR)
2 45 Joejuan Williams (CB)
3 77 Chase Winovich (DE)
3 87 Damien Harris (RB)
3 101 Yodny Cajuste (OT)
2018 1 23 Isaiah Wynn (OT)
1 31 Sony Michel (RB)
2 56 Duke Dawson (CB)
2017 3 83 Derek Rivers (DE)
3 85 Antonio Garcia (OT)
2016 2 60 Cyrus Jones (CB)
3 78 Joe Thuney (G)
3 91 Jacoby Brissett (QB)
3 96 Vincent Valentine (DT)
2015 1 32 Malcom Brown (DT)
2 64 Jordan Richards (S)
3 97 Geneo Grissom (DE)
2014 1 29 Dominique Easley (DT)
2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo (QB)
2013 2 52 Jamie Collins (LB)
2 59 Aaron Dobson (WR)
3 83 Logan Ryan (DB)
3 91 Duron Harmon (DB)
2012 1 21 Chandler Jones (DE)
1 25 Dont’a Hightower (LB)
2 48 Tavon Wilson (DB)
3 90 Jake Bequette (DE)
2011 1 17 Nate Solder (OT)
2 33 Ras-I Dowling (DB)
2 56 Shane Vereen (RB)
3 73 Stevan Ridley (RB)
3 74 Ryan Mallett (QB)
2010 1 27 Devin McCourty (DB)
2 42 Rob Gronkowski (TE)
2 53 Jermaine Cunningham (LB)
2 62 Brandon Spikes (LB)
3 90 Taylor Price (WR)

Extraordinarily superficial annual ratings below are based on my 👍/😐/👎/🖕 scale from the Old Lady Book Club days. As here, the middle finger was reserved then for a singularly poor showing. Guess which? Correct!

2021	👍
2020	😐
2019	👎
2018	👎
2017	🖕
2016	😐
2015	👎
2014	😐
2013	😐
2012	👍
2011	😐
2010	👍

Let’s go round by round in order of draft position. With three Joneses in the house—“All that glitters ain’t gold!”—I’ll be on a first-name basis with Mac, Cyrus and Chandler. So, you children of the world, listen to what I say: if you want a better place to live in, parse the words today!

Twelve years of Bill Belichick first-rounders
Year | Overall | Player
2021 15 Mac Jones
2011 17 Nate Solder
2012 21 Chandler Jones
2018 23 Isaiah Wynn
2012 25 Dont’a Hightower
2010 27 Devin McCourty
2014 29 Dominique Easley
2018 31 Sony Michel
2019 32 N’Keal Harry
2015 32 Malcom Brown

It’s not necessarily fair to rewind to 2010 but their top two picks that year are still starting in this league, as are 2011’s Solder and 2012’s Chandler and Hightower. (2012’s Wilson, somehow, remains a reserve.) Belichick needs these on his side and ’11 did kick off Phase II of the dynasty, with eight straight AFC Championship appearances, five Super Bowl appearances and three Lombardis. Fuck yeah.

This is a decent crew, considering all but two were chosen with the final twelve picks of the round. I and most observers are pleased with Mac, even if we don’t go the full retard and assume a Brady-like ascendancy—he’s won three of seven games so far and is a distant second-best quarterback in the division. But if he’s the starter for the next seven or eight years then avoiding the Jets’ early-round-quarterback shuffle every two or three years is a nice benefit. Call me optimistic.

Solder was fine—Patriots Unfiltered’s Paul Perillo declaring himself “not sold” after the pick kind of nails it—and he is still starting (on the right side) with the Giants but I, too, am not sold on first-round offensive linemen, even left tackles. Perillo again: “Do it on your own time.” Agreed. Solder lasted seven seasons before jumping to the G-Men in free agency.

Chandler was obviously a good pick but, too often, when Belichick does manage to hit it out of the park, the player becomes too expensive (value and what not) to re-sign to a long-term deal. This might explain the tendency toward middling stiffs—they’re not great, but they’re cheap! He signed his fifth-year option, had a very public PCP rampage during the 2015/2016 playoffs, was traded to the Cardinals two months later and emerged there as an elite pass-rusher. (The circumstances of his exit distracted from another possibility: Belichick the coach misused him by prioritizing versatility over explicit talent. Yikes.) Four excellent years and gone.

Wynn is not good. Do it on your own damn time! PU’s Fred Kirsch dubbed him “Isaiah Wynn-jury,” which sounds better than it reads. People who believe the team is a healthy Wynn away from superior offensive-line play probably own multiple slim-fit Edelman jerseys.

I’ll group Hightower and McCourty together. Hightower was great once—“Arms to the ball, motherfucker!”—but I haven’t noticed a single thing he’s done all season. McCourty was good once—as a rookie cornerback, before being figured out and demoted to safety the following year—and I have noticed things he’s done this season, bad things unworthy of “Free Free Safety Advice.” The time has come to see what younger players can do in their stead. (They both sat out with injury yesterday—Hightower was inactive and McCourty left in the second quarter—but the blowout win was a coincidence. It’s 54–13 no matter what.)

Easley was a bust the second they drafted him. Remember Mel Kiper? “Big injuries. Two torn ACLs… durability is the reason I thought he’d be a second-/third-round pick at best.” He was released—released!—after two years and somehow lasted three more with the Rams. Good grief.

I liked Michel but running back is another position undeserving of first-round love. He played three decent years and was traded to the Rams in August after not being granted a fifth-year option. We’ll always have your lone LIII touchdown but that “Mean Tweets” bit hit a little close to home. “Panasonic Michel”? Come on.

Harry—the worst offender, which is saying something with Easley in the room—made a great catch yesterday (his only one of the game) and that might increase his trade value from a 2022 conditional seventh to a 2023 straight-up seventh. Unless this is really the game that gets him going! He and Michel should be the future of this offense, players for a young Mac to lean on in close games. They are not.

Brown was anonymous enough over four years to be declined a fifth-year option. He signed with the Saints and so-so play followed—they traded him to the Jaguars this past offseason. There are two Ls in Jacksonville but only one in Malcom.

Lastly, I can’t ignore this span’s four drafts without a first-rounder. 2013’s twenty-ninth pick was traded to the Vikings—they took perennial what-if Cordarrelle Patterson, Mr. One Step Forward and Two Back himself, who played a bland year with the Pats in the middle of his five-team adventure. 2016’s earned twenty-ninth was taken away for that Deflategate bullshit. Carry on. 2017’s thirty-second was traded to the Saints, who took tackle Ryan Ramczyk, about whom I know nothing except that he’s still there. Good for him! And 2020’s twenty-third was traded to the Chargers. They chose linebacker Kenneth Murray, whose first career sack came at Cam Newton’s expense during last year’s outlier blowout victory. Talk about suggestive invitations.

The measurable results
Named to All-Pro Team N/A
Fifth-year option exercised Solder Wynn Chandler Hightower
Contract extended McCourty Solder Hightower
Signed franchise tag N/A
Departed via free agency Solder Brown
Traded Chandler Michel
Released Easley
Still with the Patriots Mac Wynn Hightower McCourty Harry
Out of the league Easley

You know, I feel a little better after this breakdown. Of twelve players—three of whom were taken with the round’s final two picks—only Easley is out of the league, and it was clear from go that his chances of exceling were slim. Four players were good enough for fifth-year options, which isn’t terrible because McCourty predated the maneuver and those drafted after 2018 are not yet eligible. Zero All-Pros though? Unforgiveable. McCourty’s second-team selections don’t count because “All-Pro” denotes the best, not the less-than-best. “Some-Pro”? Sure. Three-time NFL Some-Pro safety Devin McCourty.

It’s not Belichick the GM’s fault that Hightower and McCourty are still on the team. That’s solid evaluation and projection. (It is, though, Belichick the GM’s fault that their successors aren’t in place.) Just don’t overrate the “still with the Patriots” category with the recent picks—Harry is hanging on by a thread, Mac would have had to solicit handjobs from sex-trafficked prostitutes to get released—har! har!—before now and even informed and likeable water-carrier Mike Reiss is surmising that “Wynn [is] not performing like a first-round pick” and “it’s hard to imagine [the Pats] are thrilled” to have picked up his option. I don’t know. The rest are decent enough to be valued somewhere, though some (Harry) might not be for long. I don’t feel better anymore. Drag. Second round on the clock.

Twelve years of Bill Belichick second-rounders
Year | Overall | Player
2011 33 Ras-I Dowling
2020 37 Kyle Dugger
2021 38 Christian Barmore
2010 42 Rob Gronkowski
2019 45 Joejuan Williams
2012 48 Tavon Wilson
2013 52 Jamie Collins
2010 53 Jermaine Cunningham
2018 56 Duke Dawson
2011 56 Shane Vereen
2013 59 Aaron Dobson
2020 60 Josh Uche
2016 60 Cyrus Jones
2014 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
2010 62 Brandon Spikes
2015 64 Jordan Richards

Player-by-player analyses are great for first-rounders but seconds, though they should be valuable and regular contributors to success, never get the glory. Especially on this team! I mean, holy goddamn shit. Look at that Richards–Cyrus–Dawson trifecta from 2016 to 2018. Look at it!

The measurable results
Named to All-Pro Team Gronkowski
Contract extended Gronkowski
Signed franchise tag N/A
Departed via free agency Wilson Vereen Spikes
Traded Gronkowski Collins Dawson Garoppolo Richards
Released Dowling Cunningham Dobson Cyrus
Still with the Patriots Dugger Barmore Williams Uche
Out of the league Dowling Cunningham Vereen Dobson Cyrus Spikes

At least we got an actual three-time All-Pro here with Gronkowski, who “retired” for a year and then demanded a trade to join Brady in Tampa. Sigh. By my research (which, admittedly, might be incomplete or otherwise flawed), Gronk is also the only pick to have signed a contract extension—that, more than anything I’m raving about here, is the reddest flag.

The recent Dugger and especially Barmore, if they stay healthy and on track, could buck that trend but Williams will not. Uche is in no-man’s land because Belichick the coach doesn’t trust Belichick the GM’s evaluation and sits him for sixty percent of every game.

Vereen was pretty good but Dion Lewis and James White were upgrades so letting him go was the right decision in hindsight. Ah, but at the time? Or drafting him in the first place? Wilson, Cunningham, Dobson and Dowling—selected atop the round after a good twenty hours of Belichick telling himself “Good old rock, nothing beats that!”—were flagrant overreaches and instant failures, regardless of Wilson’s enduring, baffling career. Cyrus (like Newton) is technically active but his free-agent-in-October status slots him out of the league—in retrospect, I wish he and Dawkins were given more time to improve.

Collins was traded, re-signed, allowed to walk and re-signed again while Spikes was allowed to walk, re-signed and then released before mini-camp due to a hit-and-run investigation (guilty). Those are Belichick’s historical second rounds in a nutshell.

Garoppolo was the one who got away, though even Belichick’s stubborn ass favored (or was compelled to favor) Brady when it counted. Regret surrounding Garoppolo, regardless of traveling salesman Martellus Bennett’s ongoing look-at-me parade about an inability to win “with a bitch for a quarterback,” centered (and centers) on what we got in return (a mid-second). Much like with Stephon Gilmore a few weeks ago, the GM’s timing was late by months and potential trade value plummeted as a result. These things matter, short and long term, to rebuilding teams. As should…

Twelve years of Bill Belichick third-rounders
Year | Overall | Player
2011 73 Stevan Ridley
2011 74 Ryan Mallett
2019 77 Chase Winovich
2016 78 Joe Thuney
2017 83 Derek Rivers
2013 83 Logan Ryan
2017 85 Antonio Garcia
2020 87 Anfernee Jennings
2019 87 Damien Harris
2012 90 Jake Bequette
2010 90 Taylor Price
2020 91 Devin Asiasi
2016 91 Jacoby Brissett
2013 91 Duron Harmon
2021 96 Ronnie Perkins
2016 96 Vincent Valentine
2015 97 Geneo Grissom
2020 101 Dalton Keene
2019 101 Yodny Cajuste

What are we doing?

The measurable results
Named to All-Pro Team N/A
Contract extended Harmon
Signed franchise tag Thuney
Departed via free agency Ridley Thuney Ryan
Traded Mallett Brissett Harmon
Released Rivers Garcia Bequette Price Valentine Grissom
Still with the Patriots Winovich Jennings Harris Asiasi Perkins Keene Cajuste
Out of the league Ridley Mallett Garcia Bequette Price Valentine Grissom

It’s the third round, after all, so we’re not expecting All-Pros… unless Bill Parcells is buying the groceries. We are expecting reliable contributors and Thuney (candidate for post-Patriots All-Pro recognition à la Curtis Martin) is the best of the bunch—smack in proper “do it on your own time” territory—with Ryan, Harris (fantastic against the Jets), Harmon and my (unmentioned?) man Brissett turning out nicely. Recent high-upside prospects—based on their draft positions—Jennings, Asiasi, Perkins and Keene are MIA and, seemingly, FUBAR. Winovich spends more time fostering a career as a social-media weirdo. Price seemed like a great guy and I was bummed that it never worked out—he, Dobson, Chad Jackson and the wretched Antonio Brown never had a chance wearing seventeen.

And Jake Bequette? And Jake Bequette! The failed defensive end (zero career sacks, tackles or anything at all) and failed tight end (zero opportunities, cut during offseason) is “sick and tired of politicians who only stand up for [twice-impeached former] President Trump when they stand to benefit” and running to replace one of Arkansas’s two Republican senators. “There’s no politically correct way to sack a quarterback.” How would he know? Bequette wasn’t the last Trump supporter in the organization—the white former superstar quarterback, the white current head coach and the white sex-crime-enabling owner remain, at least—but, so far, he’s the most dangerous to democracy. That is one terrible third-round pick. “Just see if you can block me.” Statistics indicate that a lot of people did, and well, against all the hate that’s in his heart. Fuck Jake Bequette with the largest participation trophy available.

Those Old Lady Book Club ratings speak for themselves and fifty-burger wins against the Jets change nothing: three thumbs up (one in the last ten years, and even that’s projecting a lot), five so-so faces, three thumbs down and one Arundhati Roy Memorial Middle Finger cannot overcome Brady’s exit under Belichick. This is the man we’re counting on to steer the Patriots back to relevancy, to draft more Malcom Browns and Aaron Dobsons, to sign more Davon Godchauxs and Shawn Springses, to trade for more Jonathan Martins and Mohamed Sanus (love you, buddy)? Look at those non-Gronk, non-Hightower, non-Chandler names up there! Look at them! Non-Mac, non-Harris and non-Barmore as well if you’re drinking a half-full glass… but look! Enough.

Up next: Idiots embrace denial as a way of life and use facts—Pats traveling across the country, Chargers coming off a bye—to overlook a shocking talent discrepancy. Happy Halloween!