Week nine
The game: Patriots at Panthers
The beer: 603 Toasted Pumpkin Ale
The result: Win, 24–6
The method: NFL Game Pass
Week ten
The game: Browns at Patriots
The beer: True North Endangered Ale
The result: Win, 45–7
The method: Live via Paramount+
The headline: “Shame on the brain, that’s right!” – Six Finger Satellite, “Shame on the Brain”
The commentary: Who knows nothing about football (and politics)? I know nothing about football (and politics). Three thousand words later (and counting), Coach Belichick is making me, my projections and my ashamed brain look foolish—specifically, since week four, my predicted record (3–7) is three whole games behind reality (6–4) and feels greater given its relationship to the mean and the postseason. Whoops!
What happened, baby? Let’s examine my error(s) and agree to ignore those arbitrary confident/unspecified/toss-up labels. They suggest a blowout/nail-biter scale I didn’t intend—for example, a “confident loss” against the Bucs meant I was certain the Pats would lose, whether by two, ten or twenty-four points. Likewise, though I misplaced my toss-ups between the Texans and the Cowboys, the point was that a win or a loss wouldn’t surprise me in either case. (It turns out I was way off about the Cowboys: despite overtime, I eventually understood ahead of the game that it transitioned to “confident loss” status.) As usual, I get lost in the details and end up being wrong about those as well. Drag.
Here’s the judged original bullshit. Pardon my defensive posture.
| Buccaneers Confident loss ✔️ |
| @ Texans Toss-up loss 😐 |
| Cowboys Toss-up win 😐 |
| Jets Win ✔️ |
| @ Chargers Confident loss 😐 |
| @ Panthers Toss-up loss 😐 |
| Browns Loss 😐 |
From weeks four through ten, the Pats went 5–2 against the competition and I’ve gone 2–5 against the Pats. Symmetry is nothing if not beautiful, am I right? The big difference, of course, is that Chargers–Panthers–Browns stretch, and not just because I forged a three-game losing streak out of a four-game winning streak. Three varieties of defeat: three swings and three misses! I am the fade you’re looking for.
Let’s see how wrong I can be the rest of the way, even with straight-up win/loss adjustments as needed.
| @ Falcons |
| Titans Loss |
| @ Bills |
| BYE WEEK Xmas Blues XII 🤘 |
| @ Colts |
| Bills Loss |
| Jaguars Win |
| @ Dolphins |
By the existence of actual results and the folly of harnessing the unknown, an originally predicted 7–10 becomes (of course) 10–7! Symmetry! What a beauty! Can 10–7 make the playoffs? Can the Pats beat the Bills with a third try? More importantly, after all this, I’m changing my mind zero times? What are we doing?
In “upgrading” my Thursday Night Football pick—and hoping Prime Video doesn’t black out local games—I’m assuming a destroyed Falcons franchise will be unable to muster much of a fight despite home-field advantage on a short week. (Patriots Unfiltered’s mighty Fred Kirsch talked yesterday about feeling like the Falcons haven’t won a game all year. Heartbreak is a lingering bastard.)
The Titans are almost a consensus “best team in the league” and their playoff win a couple of years ago proves that they don’t give a shit about a Patriots mystique that no longer exists anyway. (One thing I haven’t gotten wrong over the years is my criticism of Devin McCourty—bad angles, too, are lingering bastards.)
I also can’t ignore that the Bills, on paper, are plainly better than the Pats, should win by two touchdowns in Buffalo and by at least a field goal in Foxborough three weeks later. The wild card—har! har!—the second time around is if they’ve already clinched the division and playoff seed and rest their starters as a result. (Should the Bills lose their home game, though, they can go hang out with the Falcons in the land of brokenness for the next decade.)
A twelfth volume of Xmas Blues provides the perfect winter soundtrack to drown out Lucas Oil Stadium’s infamous piped-in crowd noise. These Colts—any Colts—don’t scare me at all, never did, never will. (Part of me remembers the Pats advancing to Super Bowl XLI and beating the Bears 46–10.)
The penultimate week of the regular season sees the good guys welcome the new year by wrapping their playoff aspirations in the warmth of faux jaguar fur. Mmm. Trevor Lawrence is, from all reports, still the best quarterback of the draft but Mac Jones sure seems like the second-best so far—his superior supporting cast, coaching staff and potential blizzard conditions overcome the talent discrepancy. (Forget for now that Jones has yet to be challenged by snow and sleet.)
Lastly, no matter their record, the Dolphins are always scary in Miami at the end of just… about… every… goddamn season. Even in Foxborough! I’d call it a toss-up if that weren’t so cowardly, or if my analysis were worth a shit. (Go Pats!)
It’s exciting to be a Patriots fan again—pleasantly exciting, the excitement that comes with winning, not Mike Dussault’s nonsense. The playoffs are within sight, if not immediate reach, but I’m already satisfied with what they’ve accomplished this season. Jones is the real deal—not one who’ll ever be a top-five quarterback but one who (as Paul Perillo described last week) won’t lose many games by himself the way Cam Newton did last year. (I’m happy for Newton to have re-signed with Carolina. Good for him! Sunday’s stat line of a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in only nine snaps is so Newton, and the chance that it might be his best performance all year is part of the bargain.) Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson also suggest a bright future as we get more out of a draft class than we have in nine years. Nine! Exciting! Except!
Except? Unfortunately, this team plateaus without a strong 2022 draft—cornerback, wide receiver, linebacker, etc.—and I maintain that GM Belichick is not the man for the job. He’s set the team up nicely with a (so far) excellent 2021 crop and that can be his legacy because, historically, he can’t do it two years in a row. He can’t! But he can undo it.
Trust me. I nailed that Jets win.
Up next: You’re asking me? Happy Thanksgiving!
More Cream Please 